Opposition bloc loses to Erdoğan’s alliance without pro-Kurdish HDP votes - survey

Turkey’s ruling alliance would receive 46.3 percent support as compared to 35.6 percent backing for the opposition alliance if the elections were to be held this Sunday, according to a survey conducted by the Ankara-based MetroPoll agency.

The victory of the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s People’s Alliance, comprising his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), would be possible should the opposition Nation Alliance, made up of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the nationalist Good Party (İYİP), fail to garner the support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the survey found.

A total of 36.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for the ruling AKP if the elections were held on Sunday, while 10 percent said they would support its ally, the  far-right MHP, according to the MetroPoll survey citing figures based on the proportional distribution of the undecided 12.1 percent of participants.

The main opposition CHP received 23.2 percent of the vote and the İYİP12.4 percent, according to the survey.

Those who support the pro-Kurdish HDP measured at 11.9 percent, while the AKP breakaway opposition Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) garnered 1.4 percent of the vote, the survey found.

HDP, which has played a key role in previous elections, is not among the six parties that form Turkey’s opposition Nation Alliance. The alliance, which earlier this year signed a manifesto to abolish the executive presidential system and restore rule of law under a strengthened parliamentary system, appears unlikely to include HDP in its fold after İYİP leader Meral Akşener in September sharply ruled out a possible alliance with the HDP.

Turkey’s second-largest opposition party, the HDP is accused of being a centre of activity for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed group that has been partner to an internal conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s. 

The group is facing a closure case over terror links, while Ankara has implemented a years-long crackdown on the party. Several of the HDP’s leading figures, including former co-chair and presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş are currently imprisoned on terrorism charges.

The HDP vote, which stands at 8-12 percent according to polls, suggests that Turkey’s Kurdish voters will determine the fate of the next elections, as they did in the local elections of 2019, when the HDP backing won the opposition the largest cities.

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